DE_LU Day-Ahead Prices Jun 27: Spread of 337 EUR/MWh, Negative Midday

For tomorrow's day-ahead market, we expect the following:

📈 Daily pattern: On this Saturday, prices open at €155/MWh and hold an overnight floor of €123–138/MWh. They rise to a morning peak of €139.40/MWh at 07:00, then fall steeply to a brief negative trough of -€4.83/MWh at 14:00. From there prices climb sharply to an evening peak of €332.57/MWh at 20:30 before easing to €151/MWh by midnight.

📊 Range and spread: The forecast spans a wide intraday spread of approximately €337/MWh, from the midday trough of -€4.83/MWh at 14:00 to the evening peak of €332.57/MWh at 20:30.

🔻 Negative prices: The forecast records three quarter-hours of negative prices, between 13:30 and 14:00, reaching -€4.83/MWh at 14:00.

Review of yesterday's forecast

📊 Metrics: The forecast delivered strong accuracy with an R² of 0.912, explaining about 91% of the day's price variance. The MAE of €15.88/MWh reflects generally close tracking across most quarter-hours.

📈 Maximum: The actual daily peak of €406.17/MWh occurred at 20:45, while the forecast placed its own peak 30 minutes later at 21:15, a moderate timing miss. The model captured the evening surge but underestimated its sharpness (under-forecast by €61.25/MWh at the true peak quarter-hour).

📉 Minimum: The forecast perfectly timed the actual minimum quarter-hour at exactly 14:00. The minimum level was less accurate, with the forecast dipping to −€19.08/MWh against an actual €28.54/MWh. Thus, the model correctly predicted all but one non-negative price period.

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