DE/LU Day-Ahead Prices Sep 29: Peak at 244 EUR/MWh, Spread 177

Day-ahead forecast for 29 September 2026

• 📊 Daily pattern: Prices open at €192/MWh and hold near €170/MWh overnight before climbing to a morning high of €239/MWh at 07:15. They fall through late morning to a midday trough of €67/MWh at 13:15, then climb again to an evening peak of €244/MWh at 18:45 before easing to €116/MWh by 23:45.
• ⚡ Peak and minimum: The maximum of €244/MWh occurs at 18:45, within an evening block averaging €199/MWh. The minimum of €67/MWh comes at 13:15, at the base of a midday trough averaging €94/MWh between 10:00–15:00.
• 📉 Range and spread: The forecast spans €67/MWh to €244/MWh, a spread of €177/MWh across the day. The mean sits at €161/MWh and the median at €171/MWh.
• 🚫 Negative prices: None are forecast for the day. All 96 quarter-hours stay above zero, with the lowest value at €67/MWh.

Forecast review, 22 to 28 September 2026

• 🎯 Metrics: The forecast averaged a mean absolute error of €13.68/MWh across the week, with RMSE at €20.54/MWh and a week level R² of 0.933. That is a 78.3% improvement over the naive previous-day benchmark.
• 🔺 Maximum: The forecast did not time the actual daily maximum exactly on any day this week, with the largest miss on September 26 at 60 minutes. The price maximum was matched to within an average of €24.23/MWh across the week.
• 🔻 Minimum: The forecast timed the actual daily minimum perfectly on two days, with the largest miss on September 27 at 135 minutes. The price minimum was matched to within an average of €17.64/MWh across the week.
• 🌩️ Negative prices: The forecast correctly flagged 13 of the 17 negative quarter-hours this week, a recall of 76.5%. Every quarter-hour it flagged as negative was correct, for a precision of 100%.