DE/LU Day-Ahead Prices Oct 13: Morning Peak

Our quarter-hourly day-ahead price forecast for 13 October 2026, followed by how the forecast performed against market settlement from 6 to 12 October 2026.

• 📊 Daily pattern: Prices open at €184/MWh at 00:00 and settle near €158/MWh overnight before a morning high of €246/MWh at 08:00. The midday block averages €137/MWh, then prices rise to €202/MWh at 18:45 and end the day at €109/MWh at 23:45.
• ⚡ Peak and minimum: The maximum of €246/MWh occurs at 08:00, within a morning block averaging €212/MWh. The minimum of €103/MWh comes at 23:30, after a midday trough of €120/MWh at 14:00.
• 📉 Range and spread: The forecast spans €103/MWh to €246/MWh, a spread of €143/MWh across the day. The mean sits at €164/MWh and the median at €160/MWh.
• 🚫 Negative prices: None are forecast for the day. All 96 quarter-hours stay above zero, with the lowest value at €103/MWh.

Forecast review, 6 to 12 October 2026

• 🎯 Metrics: The forecast reached a mean absolute error of €15.11/MWh across the week. That is a 73.5% improvement over the naive previous-day benchmark.
• ⏱️ Maximums: The daily maximum was timed exactly on five of seven days, with the largest timing miss on October 7. The price maximum was missed by €27.87/MWh on average.
• 🔻 Minimums: The daily minimum was timed exactly on one day, with the largest timing miss of 75 minutes on October 10. The price minimum was missed by €12.11/MWh on average.
• ➖ Negative prices: Only one interval with a negative price occurred during the week, and none was forecast.