DE/LU Day-Ahead Forecast August 25: Evening Peak of 206 EUR/MWh

Day-ahead forecast for 25 August 2026

• 📊 Daily pattern: Prices open at €163/MWh at 00:00 and hold near €148/MWh overnight before a morning high of €183/MWh at 07:00. The midday block averages €82/MWh, then prices climb through the afternoon to €206/MWh at 19:45 and ease back to €149/MWh by 23:45.
• ⚡ Peak and minimum: The maximum of €206/MWh occurs at 19:45, within an evening block averaging €186/MWh. The minimum of €61/MWh comes at 13:45, at the base of a midday trough averaging €82/MWh.
• 📉 Range and spread: The forecast spans €61/MWh to €206/MWh, a spread of €145/MWh across the day. The mean sits at €140/MWh and the median at €147/MWh.
• 🚫 Negative prices: None are forecast for the day. All 96 quarter-hours stay above zero, with the lowest value at €61/MWh.

Forecast review, 18 to 24 August 2026

• 🎯 Metrics: The forecast averaged an MAE of €9.64/MWh over the seven days, with an RMSE of €12.34/MWh and an R² of 0.950 for the week. August 20 was the strongest day at €6.51/MWh and August 24 the weakest at €13.31/MWh.
• 📈 Maximum: The forecast placed the daily maximum in the correct quarter-hour on three of the seven days. The value of the maximum was matched to within an average of €16.18/MWh.
• 🕒 Minimum: The forecast hit the actual minimum quarter-hour exactly on three days, and its largest timing miss was 120 minutes on August 21. The price minimum was matched to an average of €15.16/MWh across the week.
• 🔻 Negative prices: Of the 40 quarter-hours that settled below zero, the forecast identified 8, a recall of 0.20. Every interval it flagged as negative did settle negative, giving a precision of 1.00.

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