DE/LU Day-Ahead Prices Sep 15: Evening Peak Hits 245 EUR/MWh
Back after sumer break: Telescope Energy's quarter-hourly day-ahead price forecast for 15 September 2026, followed by how the forecast performed against market settlement from 8 to 14 September 2026.
Day-ahead forecast for 15 September 2026
- 📊 Daily pattern: Prices open at €183/MWh at 00:00 and drift down to €142/MWh by 04:00, then rise to a morning high of €209/MWh at 08:00. The midday block averages €82/MWh, with prices climbing through the afternoon and evening to €245/MWh at 20:00 before easing back to €165/MWh by 23:45.
- ⚡ Peak and minimum: The maximum of €245/MWh occurs at 20:00, within an evening block averaging €223/MWh. The minimum of €65/MWh comes at 12:30, at the base of a midday trough averaging €82/MWh between 10:00–15:00.
- 📉 Range and spread: The forecast spans €65/MWh to €245/MWh, a spread of €181/MWh across the day. The mean sits at €154/MWh and the median at €161/MWh.
- 🚫 Negative prices: None are forecast for the day. All 96 quarter-hours stay above zero, with the lowest value at €65/MWh.
Forecast review, 8 to 14 September 2026
- 📈 Metrics: The forecast averaged a mean absolute error of €19.92/MWh over the week, with an RMSE of €32.65/MWh and a pooled R² of 0.783. That is a 58.4% improvement over the naive previous-day benchmark.
- 🕒 Maximum: The forecast timed the actual daily maximum perfectly on two days and had its largest timing miss on September 9 at 480 minutes. The maximum value was missed by an average of €101.92/MWh across the week, widest on September 10 when the actual settlement reached €585/MWh against a forecast extreme of €293/MWh.
- 🎯 Minimum: The forecast timed the actual daily minimum perfectly on two days and had its largest timing miss on September 14 at 120 minutes. The minimum value was closely matched across the week, with an average miss of just €13.66/MWh.
