DE_LU Day-Ahead Prices Jun 17: Spread of 158 EUR/MWh

For tomorrow's day-ahead market, expect the following:

📈 Daily pattern: On this Wednesday, prices are forecast to open at €141/MWh, rise to a morning peak of €141.98/MWh at 07:00, then ease to a midday low of €27.86/MWh at 13:30 before climbing to an evening peak of €185.91/MWh at 21:00 and easing to €127/MWh by midnight.

📊 Range and spread: The forecast spans an intraday spread of approximately €158/MWh, from the midday trough of €27.86/MWh at 13:30 to the evening peak of €185.91/MWh at 21:00.

🔆 Midday dip without negatives: The forecast records no negative prices across any of the 96 quarter-hours, with the solar-driven midday window between 11:30 and 14:30 holding in a €28–55/MWh band.

Review of yesterday's forecast

📊 Metrics: The forecast delivered solid accuracy with a low MAE of €8.42/MWh and an R² of 0.883.

📈 Maximum: The forecast nailed the evening peak timing exactly, with both the actual and forecast daily maximum landing at 20:45. The magnitude was very close too, with an under-forecast of just €5.70/MWh.

📉 Minimum: The actual minimum of €40.67/MWh occurred at 13:45, while the forecast placed it at 12:15. The price level at the true minimum quarter-hour was matched almost perfectly with an error of just €0.29/MWh.

🔻Negative prices: No negative prices were predicted and none occurred on the day.

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