DE_LU Day-Ahead Prices Jul 23: Evening Peak up to 196 EUR/MWh

For tomorrow's day-ahead market, we expect the following:

📈 Daily pattern: On this Thursday, prices open at €142/MWh and hold an overnight floor of €126–139/MWh through to 05:00. They rise to a morning peak of €160.83/MWh at 07:00, then fall steeply to a midday low of €14.51/MWh at 14:00. From there prices climb through the afternoon to an evening peak of €196.39/MWh at 21:00 before easing to €157/MWh by midnight.

📊 Range and spread: The forecast spans an intraday spread of approximately €182/MWh, from the midday trough of €14.51/MWh at 14:00 to the evening peak of €196.39/MWh at 21:00.

🔆 Midday low without negatives: The forecast records no negative prices across any of the 96 quarter-hours. The solar-driven midday window holds in a €14–23/MWh band before the afternoon recovery.

Review of the last seven days

📊 Metrics: The forecasts averaged an MAE of €12.25/MWh with an R² of 0.885 across the week.

📈 Maximum: Peak timing was accurate on most days, hit perfectly on Saturday and within 30 minutes on five of seven days. Peak values were forecast with an average absolute miss of €16.64/MWh.

🕒 Minimum: The forecast consistently hit the troughs. It struggled to hit the exact minimum quarter-hour this week due to the long flat midday troughs from Saturday to Wednesday. Minimum values averaged an absolute miss of €19.63/MWh.

⚡ Negative prices: Negative prices appeared in 51 quarter-hours across Saturday and Sunday. The forecast correctly flagged 17 of them (Recall 33%) with zero false alarms (Precision 100%).

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