DE_LU Day-Ahead Prices Jul 16: Evening Peak up to 341 EUR/MWh

For tomorrow's day-ahead market, we expect the following:

📈 Daily pattern: On this Thursday, prices open at €167/MWh and hold a high overnight floor of €145–160/MWh. They rise to a morning peak of €185.75/MWh at 08:00, then ease to a midday low of €61.66/MWh at 15:00. From there prices climb steeply to an evening peak of €340.99/MWh at 20:45 before easing to €161/MWh by midnight.

📊 Range and spread: The forecast spans an intraday spread of approximately €279/MWh, from the midday trough of €61.66/MWh at 15:00 to the evening peak of €340.99/MWh at 20:45.

🔻The forecast records no negative prices across any of the 96 quarter-hours.

⚡Elevated evening block: The evening block holds above €225/MWh for nine consecutive quarter-hours between 19:30 and 21:45.

Review of last week's forecasts

📊 Metrics: The forecasts averaged a solid MAE of €10.08/MWh and an R² of 0.920 across the week. Sunday 12 July was the clear outlier at €24.44/MWh MAE, while five of seven days were below €11/MWh MAE.

📈 Maximum: Peak timing was strong in the second half of the week, with perfect quarter-hour hits on Monday 13 and Tuesday 14 July. Peak values were matched with an average absolute miss of €17.10/MWh.

🕒 Minimum: The forecast timed the actual minimum within 30 minutes on six of seven days, including one perfect hit on Sunday. Minimum values were matched with an average absolute miss of €17.32/MWh, dominated by a single −€62.09/MWh overshoot on Sunday.

⚡ Negative prices: Negative prices occurred in 50 quarter-hours, and the forecast correctly identified 30 of them (60%), with zero false alarms all week.

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