DE_LU Day-Ahead Prices Fri Jul 10: Evening Peak up to 245 EUR/MWh

For tomorrow's day-ahead market, we expect the following:

📈 Daily pattern: On this Friday, prices open at an elevated €162/MWh and hold a high overnight floor of €136–150/MWh through to 05:30, rise to a morning peak of €170.17/MWh at 07:00, then fall steadily through the late morning to a midday trough of €17.98/MWh at 14:15 before climbing steeply to an evening peak of €245.42/MWh at 20:30 and easing to €144/MWh by midnight.

📊 Range and spread: The forecast spans an intraday spread of €227/MWh, from the midday low of €17.98/MWh to the evening peak of €245.42/MWh.

☀️ No negative prices: Despite the pronounced solar-driven midday dip, the forecast records no negative prices across any of the 96 quarter-hours, with prices holding above €18/MWh throughout the trough window.

Review of yesterday's forecast

📊 Overall performance: The forecast delivered an excellent result with a very low MAE of €6.69/MWh and an R² of 0.966, explaining 97 percent of the day's price variance. The near-zero bias of -€1.66/MWh confirms the model was extremely well-centered.

📈 Peak: The actual daily maximum of €234.91/MWh occurred at 20:45. The forecast placed its peak just 30 minutes later with €249.12/MWh.

📉 Minimum: The actual minimum of €25.07/MWh landed at 13:45. The forecast placed its trough just 15 minutes later at 14:00 with €33.42/MWh.

🔻Negative prices: The forecast correctly predicted no negative prices.

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