DE/LU Day-Ahead Prices Aug 6: Evening Peak up to 179 €/MWh

For tomorrow's day-ahead market, we expect the following:

📈 Daily pattern: Prices open at €167.25/MWh and hold an overnight floor of €139–167/MWh through to 05:00. They rise to a morning peak of €169.20/MWh at 07:00, then fall steeply to a midday low of €9.34/MWh at 13:45. From there prices climb through the afternoon to an evening peak of €178.82/MWh at 22:00 before easing to €153/MWh by midnight.

📊 Range and spread: The forecast spans an intraday spread of approximately €169/MWh, from the midday trough of €9.34/MWh at 13:45 to the evening peak of €178.82/MWh at 22:00.

🔆 Extended midday low without negatives: The forecast records no negative prices across any of the 96 quarter-hours. The solar-driven midday window between 09:45 and 15:45 holds mostly below €25/MWh for over six hours.

Review of the last day-ahead forecasts

📊 Metrics: The forecast performed with an average MAE of just €8.80/MWh and an R² of 0.949 across the last seven days. Every single day stayed under €10/MWh MAE, showing the consistent high accuracy of our Telescope Energy model.

📈 Maximum: Peak values were tracked closely on the mid-week evening spikes, with only two notable undershoots on the sharp price spikes on Monday and Tuesday. Timing was exact on three of seven days, with the furthest miss of 135 minutes on Saturday as its high evening prices prevailed longer than usual and actually peaked at 22:00.

🕒 Minimum: Trough values averaged an absolute miss of just €9.95/MWh. Minimum timing was solid, hit perfectly on three days with only Saturday drifting further at 105 minutes.

⚡ Negative prices: Negative prices occurred in 37 quarter-hours across two days, Sunday and Wednesday, and the forecast achieved a precision of 87% and a recall of 35%.

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