DE/LU Day-Ahead Prices Jul 30: Evening Peak up to 228 EUR/MWh

For tomorrow's day-ahead market, we expect the following:

📈 Daily pattern: On this Thursday, prices open at €164.59/MWh and hold an overnight floor of €140–155/MWh through to 05:00. They rise to a morning peak of €164.47/MWh at 07:00, then fall steeply to a midday low of €6.69/MWh at 12:45. From there prices climb sharply to an evening peak of €228.31/MWh at 19:45 before easing to €165/MWh by midnight.

📊 Range and spread: The forecast spans an intraday spread of approximately €222/MWh, from the midday trough of €6.69/MWh at 12:45 to the evening peak of €228.31/MWh at 19:45.

⚡ Elevated evening block: The forecast records no negative prices across any of the 96 quarter-hours. The evening block holds above €200/MWh for seven consecutive quarter-hours between 19:30 and 22:00.

Review of last seven days' forecasts

📊 Metrics: The forecasts averaged a solid MAE of €12.73/MWh with a strong R² of 0.908, and six of the seven days landed below €13/MWh MAE.

📈 Maximum: Peak values were tracked closely on the four evening-peak days, with misses under €6.10/MWh on Thursday, Friday, Monday and Tuesday. Two days broke structurally, with Saturday's forecast topping out at midnight against a 19:45 actual peak and Sunday's actual maximum falling unusually at 03:15.

🕒 Minimum: Minimum timing was strong, hit perfectly on two days and within 30 minutes on five of seven, with only Sunday drifting 105 minutes as the trough shifted into the afternoon. Trough values were matched well too, averaging an absolute miss of just €8.51/MWh across the week.

⚡ Negative prices: Negative prices occurred in 84 quarter-hours across five days, and the forecast correctly identified 23 of them, with 0 false alarms - resulting in 27% recall and 100% precision. The deepest core (Saturday) was well captured at 21 of 28 intervals.

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