DE_LU Day-Ahead Prices July 3: Negative Prices and Spread of €170/MWh

For tomorrow's day-ahead market, we expect the following:

📈 Daily pattern: On this Saturday, prices open at €135/MWh and hold an overnight floor above €107/MWh before rising to a morning peak of €121/MWh at 07:00. Prices then fall steeply to a prolonged trough and recover sharply as well, to a flat and extended evening peak around €150/MWh before easing towards €120/MWh by midnight.

📊 Range and spread: The forecast spans a wide intraday spread of approximately €170/MWh, from the midday trough of -€19/MWh at 13:45 to the evening peak of €151/MWh at 19:45.

🔻 Negative prices: The forecast records 17 quarter-hours of negative prices, between 11:00 and 15:00, reaching -€19/MWh at 13:45.

Review of yesterday's forecast

📊 Metrics: The forecast achieved a solid R² of 0.902 and an MAE of €14.18/MWh.

📈 Peak: The forecast closely hit the dual evening peak at 20:45 (forecast of €150.05/MWh vs. the actual €142.19/MWh) and 22:00 (€150.94/MWh vs. €141.36/MWh).

🕒 Minimum: Within a prolonged flat trough, the actual daily minimum of -€5.95/MWh landed at 14:45, while the forecast placed its own low at 13:15 (-€18.36/MWh), a miss of 90 minutes and €10.78/MWh.

🔻Negative prices: On a tricky day with many values around €0/MWh, the forecast correctly identified 21 of the 28 actual negative quarter-hours. It missed 7 intervals at the edges of the negative window where actual prices dipped marginally below zero. The forecast had zero false negative price predictions.

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